And sentiment is a huge factor in this and does have the power to drive recovery in areas of the economy most immediately affected by consumer and investor confidence.

The problem is ’sentiment’ has been down and whatever the inevitable financial reality of the credit crunch the media has played a major part in that. Ironically, if this is the midpoint the media’s next mission will be to second guess, and thereby help drive, recovery. As with any media story the malleability of sentiment is crucial (see: ‘From Racist to Saint, the Jade Goody story’) – build it up, knock it down, build it up again… after all, why see only one story where you can create two or three simply by tacking between positive and negative sentiment on a seasonal basis.

Hopefully more people will say ‘bollocks to the recession’. Great post.

That’s a fair point, and bristle away. I suspect you’re not including me in your list of bristle-inducers, but just in case, I’ll repeat what I said:

“The very word “crunch” fosters a defeatist attitude – understandable and forgivable if you’ve just lost your minimum wage job and you can’t find another one. Unforgivable and potentially disastrous if you’re running a business.”

Problem is that if we keep talking ourselves down even more people are going to lose their jobs than would otherwise, and the unemployed list is going to stay high for longer than it needs to. We need to help the people who are hurting, but the best long-term way of alleviating their pain is by being as bullish as realistically possible.

These people are already working their arses off to keep their heads above water and now they aren’t just losing their jobs but their homes too. It’s all very well for nice, middle-class professionals (and I will grudgingly accept I am one now!) to wonder aloud about the downturn or how they are ‘bored’ by media coverage or the ‘doom and gloom’

But if you want to know the true cost of the recession, don’t ask a lovely PR person in their lovely house, ask their cleaner, nanny, local builder or pub.

Despite all of that I am fundamentally an optimist, like your adviser.

There was an interesting piece here yesterday:

Two entrepreneurs. Two businesses. One recession. One business is booming. One has gone bust. Why? http://is.gd/nPQj

I have close experience of someone losing their livelihood and their home. Part of me bristles when I read comments like yours and some of your commenters. But still part of me acknowledges that even when we are at our lowest, we can find hope.

That said, I don’t doubt that we are not in a good position at the moment. Fact of the matter is, every country around the world (just about) is in the same boat so it’s all relative. We’re all (supposedly) suffering but, anyway, a period of adjustment (e.g. a deflation of inflated house prices) is a good thing.

We got fat and now we have to go on a diet. Painful but good for us in the long run.

Sorry I’m going to get all northern and working class on you now but if my parents can survive without no income during the miners’ strike of 84/85 I can sure as hell do without a few material things.

It’s helped along by the term “credit crunch”. The CC is essentially a systemic problem in the banking industry rather than the cause of the recession. But for journalists it’s a scary, paper-selling term.

The result? Consumers and businesses decide they are helpless in the face of the all-consuming monster. The very word “crunch” fosters a defeatist attitude – understandable and forgivable if you’ve just lost your minimum wage job and you can’t find another one. Unforgivable and potentially disastrous if you’re running a business.

The bad news is also helped along by several big retailers going under. But why is that happening? Not because civilisation is collapsing, but because it’s changing. The high-profile victims were undermined by out-of-town developments, supermarkets and online shopping. They were going to be vulnerable in any downturn. You could argue that the property bubble prolonged Woolies’ natural life by a decade.

So yes, there are problems with the economy. Yes, we need to diversify production. But in terms of the business fundamentals, there’s no reason why we should have the wipe-out everyone seems to expect. We just need to rebalance, and, as you say, spot the opportunities that times of upset bring.

I heard pretty much this analysis from Dennis Turner, the Chief Economist at HSBC, when I met him at Business Yorkshire a while back. His message was simple: “we can have a depression if we really, really want one. If things go horribly wrong, it will be because we’ve collectively decided that’s what’s going to happen.”

It’s the job of PRs, marketers and hacks to try to push the good news as hard as possible. It’s out there. We just need to persuade people they want to hear it. The folks you mention in the second half of your post are, in themselves, reasons to be cheerful.

This year, the leaders of the G20 countries are making a plan to fix the economic crisis.
we20 helps you meet, in groups of up to 20 people, to make your own plan. This year, anything can change.

And on Friday I’m going to the Cass Business School in the City to a Cre@te we20 – i.e. a group of people from the creative industries who want to use the we20 format to help find recession -busting ideas and methodologies. I’ll be suggesting the things that are in this column, for sure.

link to Cass event https://bunhill.city.ac.uk/media/events.nsf/(httpMainEvents)/CC969075B7A67F2E8025757C0056A70F?OpenDocument