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October 8th, 2010 by Wadds

The Economist on a return to growth

Austerity cuts can only be part of the solution to restoring economic prosperity in the Western economy. That’s the view of the economic team at The Economist (disclosure: client) published in a special cover report this week on the world economy.

At first sight The Economist says that the recovery is in pretty decent shape. The IMF reckons that global GDP should expand by 4.8 per cent this year. But this statistics plasters over the chasm between the emerging and rich economies.

The Economist makes the case that long-term growth may depend on structural reforms as much as prudent macroeconomic policy.  “Governments should think more coherently about how to support demand and boost supply,” it says.

April 4th, 2009 by Wadds

Green shoots: update on the FTSE 100 confidence project

istock_000003777351xsmallThere’s green shoots all around us at home in the Northumberland countryside. There can be no doubt that Spring has arrived.

It isn’t just the changing seasons that are giving way to green shoots, there’s been some positive data in the financial markets as well this week: UK house prices rose in March; the FTSE 100 climbed back upto 4,000; and the Bank of England’s Credit Conditions Survey showed that the credit market is thawing.

But for every positive data point there are half a dozen or more negative. My £1,000 FTSE 100 investment is still underwater at £975. I started the £1k FTSE 100 Confidence Project in January as a personal show of confidence in the UK equity market.

It was either or bold or foolhardy initiative depending on your point of view. Its too early to make any meaningful comment but it has served its purpose of generating debate, attracting the attention of the Business Exchange among others.

Krishna Guha writing in the FT today cautioned “economists warn that recessions rarely proceed in straight lines and false dawns are common before recovery finally takes hold.”

The economists are right of course but for the time being I take comfort from the fact that we’re starting to see some good news.