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September 9th, 2009 by Wadds

FTSE 100 Confidence Project reaches a conclusion

The FTSE 100 hit 5,004 today for the first time since October 2008. It’s an important psychological marker that will form the basis of debate over the future of the economy in the coming days.

Back in November I spotted that the FTSE had started to fluctuate around a mean of 4,200. In January I launched my personal FTSE 100 Confidence Project investing £1,000 in a FTSE tracker. I’ve used it as a mechanism to comment on the market in the intervening period.

Today I’ve banked £223 on my original investment. That’s 22 per cent growth in nine months. Equities have outperformed almost every other asset class during the last nine months.

Both Adam Parker and David Brain were quick to point out on Twitter that the FTSE 100 has been rubbish during the last years and that it is no higher than it was in 1994.

They are both absolutely spot on which is why if you are going to invest in equities you have to take a proactive approach and have a disciplined stop loss position.

This is why I’m now going to close my project and pull out my investment. To hope for further returns in a short period would be pushing my luck and I believe that the market is close to a normalised position.

If you think differently I would love to hear your views.

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April 4th, 2009 by Wadds

Green shoots: update on the FTSE 100 confidence project

istock_000003777351xsmallThere’s green shoots all around us at home in the Northumberland countryside. There can be no doubt that Spring has arrived.

It isn’t just the changing seasons that are giving way to green shoots, there’s been some positive data in the financial markets as well this week: UK house prices rose in March; the FTSE 100 climbed back upto 4,000; and the Bank of England’s Credit Conditions Survey showed that the credit market is thawing.

But for every positive data point there are half a dozen or more negative. My £1,000 FTSE 100 investment is still underwater at £975. I started the £1k FTSE 100 Confidence Project in January as a personal show of confidence in the UK equity market.

It was either or bold or foolhardy initiative depending on your point of view. Its too early to make any meaningful comment but it has served its purpose of generating debate, attracting the attention of the Business Exchange among others.

Krishna Guha writing in the FT today cautioned “economists warn that recessions rarely proceed in straight lines and false dawns are common before recovery finally takes hold.”

The economists are right of course but for the time being I take comfort from the fact that we’re starting to see some good news.