Will the iPad kill print? Will it hell

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I returned to the NEC, Birmingham today to participate in PIRA’s Great Print Debates for a session that pitched the iPad against print.
The iPad will no more spell the end of print than any previous generation of technology. Radios, TVs, PCs, CD-ROMs and the internet were all at one time set to hasten the demise of print.
The iPad is simply another device in the ongoing narrative of an industry reeling from the shift towards advertising online, the internet as a low cost real time distribution platform, and competition for consumer attention from screen based media.
Frank Romano, Professor Emeritus, Rochester Institute of Technology, did an excellent job as chair in navigating the issues facing the print industry. He divided the market up into three segments for ease of the discussion. Here’s a summary of the debate.
- Newspapers – the game was up long before Apple dreamt up the iPad. Newspapers have never recovered from the loss of classified advertising to online and the availability of free news content. Publishers are valiantly trying to build alternative funding models ranging from micro payments to clubs and from firewalls to traffic-baiting content supported by ads.
- Books – the market splits clearly into fiction and non-fiction. Consumers are unlikely to give-up the convenience or familiarity of paperbacks or the kudos of a recently published hardback any time soon. Electronic books are likely to become a convenience item for travellers but are unlikely to make a significant impact on print sales. Non-fiction books are likely to move online in time as a digital format provides a means to promote richer content, revisions and updates, and is a means to create a community.
- Magazines – There’s strong evidence to support the view that the future of business-to-business magazines lies in a digital model as display advertising continues to decline and content moves to the web. But the story for consumer titles is very different with several standout successes. Magazines are artefacts typically focused around a rich content proposition or strong niche. As long as publishers can create compelling content and the cost of publication and distribution makes it viable the consumer magazine industry will continue.
You can follow the conversation after the debate on the IPEX forum on LinkedIn.
ABC Multi-Platform March report: paywalls are coming; bulks out
The ABC Multi-Platform numbers are in for March and continue the narrative of a declining print media. But that’s not the whole story.
Print is down year-on-year. All the broadsheets, with the exception of The Financial Times (-6.41 per cent) report double digit percentage falls year-on-year. But the decline is due at least in part to newspapers stripping out bulk distribution (deals where papers are distributed free to customers at outlets such as airlines and hotels).
Here’s Roy Greenslade writing in the Guardian:
“Are there reasons to be cheerful about another set of newspaper circulation statistics that, at face value, look as depressing as ever? Well, one definite plus is that the figures are getting “cleaner” by the month. The gradual retreat by several titles from the use of bulk sales is one of the major causes of apparently bad year-on-year falls.”
News International has pulled its online titles (thesun.co.uk and thetimes.co.uk) from the scrutiny of the auditor ahead of the launch of thetimes.co.uk paywall in June.
MailOnline pursuing its celebrity-Google-baiting agenda is the fastest growing online property, and largest by audience, followed by guardian.co.uk.
Here’s the detail.
| Daily Av. March ’10 _ |
Daily Av. March ’09 _ |
Year/Year [%] _ |
|
| The Times | 502,436 | 600,210 | -16.29 |
| The Guardian | 283,063 | 340,952 | -16.98 |
| The Independent | 184,137 | 205,308 | -10.31 |
| The Daily Telegraph | 686,679 | 764,748 | -10.21 |
| The People | 532,140 | 580,815 | -8.38 |
| Daily Express | 668,273 | 725,841 | -7.93 |
| Financial Times | 401,286 | 428,766 | -6.41 |
| Daily Mirror | 1,247,013 | 1,340,131 | -6.95 |
| News of the World | 2,904,566 | 3,016,329 | -3.71 |
| Daily Mail | 2,082,352 | 2,146,783 | -3.00 |
| The Sun | 3,005,308 | 3,068,035 | -2.04 |
| Daily Star | 827,005 | 819,880 | 0.87 |
Table: National newspapers – print
_
| Daily Av. March ’10 _ |
Daily Av. March ’09 _ |
Year/Year [%] _ |
|
| MailOnline | 2,246,746 | 1,383,205 | 62.43 |
| guardian.co.uk | 1,852,293 | 1,322,314 | 40.08 |
| Mirror Group Digital | 467,711 | 346,299 | 35.06 |
| Telegraph | 1,557,118 | 1,398,106 | 11.37 |
| FT.com | N/A | 626,385 | |
| Times Online | N/A | 1,152,223 | |
| The Sun | N/A | 1,229,518 |
Table 2: National newspapers – online
_
| Daily Av. March ’10 _ |
Daily Av. March ’09 _ |
Year/Year [%] _ |
|
| The Observer | 331,488 | 431,017 | -23.09 |
| The Sunday Telegraph | 509,754 | 577,886 | -11.79 |
| Sunday Express | 570,040 | 636,153 | -10.39 |
| The Sunday Times | 1,111,660 | 1,240,348 | -10.38 |
| Independent on Sunday | 154,285 | 167,763 | -8.03 |
| Sunday Post | 337,052 | 361,371 | -6.73 |
| Sunday Mirror | 1,147,272 | 1,228,927 | -6.64 |
| Daily Star Sunday | 341,824 | 362,076 | -5.59 |
| The Mail on Sunday | 1,952,697 | 1,997,060 | -2.22 |
Table 3: Sunday newspapers – print
Future of media according to Sorrell
Sir Martin Sorrell shared a three-point prediction for the future of media with the audience at the FT Digital Media & Broadcasting conference this morning.
- Consumers need to pay for content. You cannot sustain an online media property on an advertising model alone
- Consolidation among media outlets will result as publishers continue to test different payment models to varying degrees of success
- Finally, society at large will need to decide what it wants the future of its media landscape to look like and what determine what alternative funding mechanisms are appropriate
Future of print media on Sky News
I did a slot on Sky News yesterday about the future of print media. Here’s a follow-up article that I wrote for the Sky web site that discusses the commercial pressures in the UK newspaper industry, the prospect of charging more for internet news content and the future of the TV licence in the UK.
Trendwatch: Hyperlocalism
Bloggers coached or edited by journalists to produce an alternative to regional media, either online, or in print, using emerging blog-to-publishing tools such as Tabbliod or being developed by the team behind the Things Our Friends Wrote On The Internet 2008 project.








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