November 3rd, 2009 by Wadds

Sorrell borrows blog post to predict an “LUV” recovery

Journalists apparently hung on to Sir Martin Sorrell’s every word at the WPP Q3 results announcement on Friday. Not to hear that WPP report revenues of £2.01 billion for July to September (up 6.7 per cent on the same months last year) but to learn the adman’s latest thinking on the shape of the recession.

They weren’t disappointed. Sorrell reckons that we are set to experience an “LUV”-shaped world economic recovery:

  • L-shaped for Western Europe
  • U-shaped for North America
  • V-shaped for the BRICs and Next 11

Delegates attending this year’s PRCA and CorpComms Conference had the benefit of hearing Sorrell’s wisdom three weeks earlier – which is no surprise given that its based on a blog post from July by Stella Dawson, Thomson Reuters’ Treasury Correspondent.

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April 4th, 2009 by Wadds

Green shoots: update on the FTSE 100 confidence project

istock_000003777351xsmallThere’s green shoots all around us at home in the Northumberland countryside. There can be no doubt that Spring has arrived.

It isn’t just the changing seasons that are giving way to green shoots, there’s been some positive data in the financial markets as well this week: UK house prices rose in March; the FTSE 100 climbed back upto 4,000; and the Bank of England’s Credit Conditions Survey showed that the credit market is thawing.

But for every positive data point there are half a dozen or more negative. My £1,000 FTSE 100 investment is still underwater at £975. I started the £1k FTSE 100 Confidence Project in January as a personal show of confidence in the UK equity market.

It was either or bold or foolhardy initiative depending on your point of view. Its too early to make any meaningful comment but it has served its purpose of generating debate, attracting the attention of the Business Exchange among others.

Krishna Guha writing in the FT today cautioned “economists warn that recessions rarely proceed in straight lines and false dawns are common before recovery finally takes hold.”

The economists are right of course but for the time being I take comfort from the fact that we’re starting to see some good news.

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March 31st, 2009 by Wadds

Recessionary attitudes: bollocks to denial and despair

Dog and PintBollocks to the recession is what I say.

Like Dame Stephanie Shirley, the entrepreneur and philanthropist, I’ve dusted down my fur coat, am working harder than ever, but remain upbeat and optimistic.

Some sectors are really struggling. Sales have dropped, costs are under scrutiny and people are losing their jobs. It’s really tough and the media doesn’t inspire any level of confidence.

The reported response of the business community is polarised between denial and despair. Those in denial have failed to recognise that we all need to work harder to stay in the same place. Those that despair have yet to see the opportunity that arises from the disruption of a recession.

Whatever your standpoint its time to get back to basics: stick tight to your clients and help them through the challenges that they face. And then find some new ones. Get out of your office and spend time meeting people. Social networks are good way of making introductions, but are no substitute for meeting people face-to-face.

Porter Novelli’s digital head Mat Morrision said in his recent profile in PR Week that there should be almost no distinction between your personal life and professional life. He’s spot on. I ring fence weekends for family time but otherwise my personal time ends on a Monday morning and doesn’t start again until Friday night. But that’s no different to a lot of my colleagues in the PR and marketing industries.

An optimistic outlook is essential. My glass is always half full. It is a time of opportunity if you look in the right places – and no more so than in the PR industry.

I keep banging on that PR consultancies have the skills and the tools to lead clients into the new area of marketing called social media. Those that do are reaping the benefit.

Beyond that the role of PR as a cost effective marketing tactic makes it a strong proposition for consultancies that can demonstrate value.

Here are three recession busting anecdotes from people I’ve spent time with during the last week.

I caught up with Branded, Loewy’s team of brand communication and marketing strategists for breakfast this morning. It’s telling its clients to scrutinise their marketing spend and focus on the most cost effective channels to reach their audience. That’s good news for PR.

Rebecca Caroe came up with three counter recessionary business ideas for the creative industries in 30 minutes when we met last week. New business models and opportunities are emerging just as fast as old ones are withering.

Finally, I met one of my long term business mentor for lunch last week. His view was that irrespective of the financial packages that have been put in place by world governments and whatever emerges from the G20, it will be the US that leads the world out of the recession. The reason? The fundamental optimism that is built into the American psyche.

I’ll have a bit of that please.

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